Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $44,293$ on 2020-04-24

Best fit exponential: \(2.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,363.4}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 37.0)}}\) (asimptote \(47,363.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,679$ on 2020-04-24

Best fit exponential: \(206 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,278.0}{1 + 10^{-0.082 (t - 33.2)}}\) (asimptote \(7,278.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $27,492$ on 2020-04-24

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $219,764$ on 2020-04-24

Best fit exponential: \(1.68 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{211,632.3}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 33.0)}}\) (asimptote \(211,632.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $22,524$ on 2020-04-24

Best fit exponential: \(1.88 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,091.3}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 29.5)}}\) (asimptote \(22,091.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $104,885$ on 2020-04-24

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $192,994$ on 2020-04-24

Best fit exponential: \(1.61 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{191,389.6}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(191,389.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $25,969$ on 2020-04-24

Best fit exponential: \(1.73 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,973.8}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 38.5)}}\) (asimptote \(25,973.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $106,527$ on 2020-04-24

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $159,952$ on 2020-04-24

Best fit exponential: \(7.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{187,581.9}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 40.5)}}\) (asimptote \(187,581.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $22,279$ on 2020-04-24

Best fit exponential: \(885 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,188.5}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 34.8)}}\) (asimptote \(23,188.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $93,402$ on 2020-04-24

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $144,640$ on 2020-04-24

Best fit exponential: \(4.31 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(9.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{163,130.6}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(163,130.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $19,567$ on 2020-04-24

Best fit exponential: \(635 \times 10^{0.034t}\) (doubling rate \(8.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,043.7}{1 + 10^{-0.078 (t - 33.1)}}\) (asimptote \(21,043.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $124,349$ on 2020-04-24

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $36,729$ on 2020-04-24

Best fit exponential: \(2.16 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,549.5}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(39,549.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,304$ on 2020-04-24

Best fit exponential: \(236 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,487.4}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 32.4)}}\) (asimptote \(4,487.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,323$ on 2020-04-24

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,567$ on 2020-04-24

Best fit exponential: \(667 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,940.3}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(21,940.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,152$ on 2020-04-24

Best fit exponential: \(63 \times 10^{0.037t}\) (doubling rate \(8.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,835.8}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,835.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,410$ on 2020-04-24

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $18,184$ on 2020-04-24

Best fit exponential: \(450 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,997.4}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(22,997.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,014$ on 2020-04-24

Best fit exponential: \(13 \times 10^{0.042t}\) (doubling rate \(7.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,736.2}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,736.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,937$ on 2020-04-24

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Iceland recovered 78%
Austria recovered 71%
Switzerland recovered 58%
Germany recovered 46%
Denmark recovered 40%
Malta recovered 37%
Andorra recovered 31%
Croatia recovered 22%
Czechia recovered 13%
Italy recovered 2%

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,789$ on 2020-04-24

Best fit exponential: \(238 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,802.8}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,802.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-04-24

Best fit exponential: \(1.35 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11.3}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 24.4)}}\) (asimptote \(11.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $237$ on 2020-04-24

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,071$ on 2020-04-24

Best fit exponential: \(2.03 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,649.8}{1 + 10^{-0.089 (t - 27.3)}}\) (asimptote \(14,649.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $530$ on 2020-04-24

Best fit exponential: \(36.7 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{549.7}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 28.4)}}\) (asimptote \(549.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,669$ on 2020-04-24

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $28,677$ on 2020-04-24

Best fit exponential: \(3.33 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,151.3}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 29.7)}}\) (asimptote \(28,151.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,589$ on 2020-04-24

Best fit exponential: \(84 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,620.8}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,620.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,088$ on 2020-04-24

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $154,999$ on 2020-04-24

Best fit exponential: \(1.36 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{152,638.1}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 32.0)}}\) (asimptote \(152,638.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,760$ on 2020-04-24

Best fit exponential: \(275 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,533.0}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 30.7)}}\) (asimptote \(6,533.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39,439$ on 2020-04-24